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Memorial to the Lithuanian Partisans at Kryžkalnis
I.The study - Lithuania’s defense capabilities
Journalist and head of the organization "Stiprūs kartu" (Strong Together), Edmundas Jakilaitis, has unveiled a comprehensive study on Lithuania’s defense capabilities to the public.
I would like to recall that the mentioned study was conducted two years ago, in the autumn of 2024. With this article, I intend to revisit that study and examine how circumstances—or our level of preparedness—have changed.
The study was conducted in Washington by analysts from the "New Generation Warfare" center, in collaboration with Lithuanian military experts. Researchers and military personnel simulated two potential conflict scenarios, exploring what would await the country if Russia were to decide to attack Lithuania in 20...
The study analyzes the first 10 days of a military conflict, after which Lithuania would no longer be defending itself alone, but would instead receive full-scale support from NATO allies. The second simulation scenario proved successful for Lithuania: nearly the entire national territory was preserved, while the losses sustained by the enemy significantly exceeded those suffered by Lithuania and its allies. "If Lithuania allocates an additional 10 billion euros to defense, our country could effectively resist an attack by the armed forces of the Russian Federation for 10 days. During this period, Lithuania would not *de facto* lose control of its territory, and there would be no threat to the state's existence. This 10-day window is vital for allowing NATO allies to reach political decisions, activate reinforcements, and assist Lithuania in repelling aggression," E. Jakilaitis stated at the Lithuanian Business Forum (2024).
@retv.lv The Rezekne zemessardze battalion is armed with Patria armored vehiclesII. Scenario one. The Daugavpils Axis – A Critical Point for Lithuania’s Defense
In collaboration with experts from the U.S., Germany, and Poland, Lithuania modeled potential actions based on a scenario involving a Russian attack on the Baltic states. A key element of this plan is the defense of Daugavpils (Latvia). Representatives of the Lithuanian Armed Forces emphasize that our forces are prepared to mobilize all available resources to help protect this city.
"In the event of a war with Russia, Lithuania would also fight in southeastern Latvia—specifically along the Daugavpils axis," the presentation of the study notes. The simulation assesses how Lithuania would fare in repelling an attack in 20.., taking into account all currently known circumstances—including the fact that a permanent German brigade is already deployed in Lithuania.
According to the study, the border city of Narva and the Narva River would play a crucial role in the defense of Estonian territory against pressure from the east. Estonia would also have to fend off strikes coming from the direction of Pskov, where Russian military units are stationed less than 100 kilometers from the Estonian border.
If Russian forces could not be halted in Latvia, the Latgale region would face the threat of occupation. The researchers state that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate) to develop plans to transform Latgale into a sort of "Baltic Donbas."
Daugavpils is Latvia’s second-largest city and the administrative center of the Latgale region. This axis is strategically vital for preventing Russian forces from advancing deeper into Latvian and Lithuanian territory. Consequently, Lithuania would be required to participate in the defense of this line.
"Lithuania must fight in southeastern Latvia, along the Daugavpils axis, as defending the line of the Daugava River is essential to thwarting a major Russian operational offensive," the study concludes. Scenario One: Defense with Current Capabilities (A Path to Defeat)
If Lithuania fails to amass the necessary defense resources, its current capabilities will be insufficient to protect its major cities—Vilnius and Kaunas. It is projected that, in the opening days of a war, enemy forces would advance from the territory of Belarus toward Vilnius. The offensive would last approximately five days, with the capital being encircled by the sixth day. Even if Vilnius were to hold out, Russian and Belarusian troops would begin advancing toward Kaunas.
Simultaneously, another enemy contingent would push westward and southwestward from the direction of Latvia, seizing northeastern Lithuania. Meanwhile, Russian forces from the Karaliaučius region would launch an offensive toward the east and southeast, aiming to link up with a division arriving from Belarus via the Suwałki Gap. It is estimated that by 20.., Russia could establish an army-sized military unit in the Karaliaučius region.
In the event of war, enemy strikes would target not only military infrastructure but also civilian infrastructure in Vilnius and Kaunas. It is estimated that within 10 days, enemy forces would encircle Vilnius and reach the approaches to Kaunas.
"De facto, under this scenario, we are on the path to defeat," commented Colonel (Ret.) Gintaras Ažubalis. Loss projections for the first 10 days (Scenario 1):
• Lithuanian losses: 17 tanks, 145 armored vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles, 17 artillery systems, and 3,650 troops.
• Enemy losses: 411 tanks, 1,019 armored vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles, 254 artillery systems, and 11,420 troops.
Although the aggressor’s losses would be incomparably higher, without additional investment, Lithuania would be unable to defend its major industrial and population centers.
Lithuanian JLTVIII. Scenario Two: A Fortified and Armed Lithuania (Successful Repulse)
This scenario envisions that by 20.., Lithuania has significantly strengthened its military: heavy *Apache* combat helicopters have been acquired, additional HIMARS multiple launch rocket system batteries have been formed, and a German brigade has been fully integrated into the country.
Just before the breakthrough, the Russian military begins moving westward toward Daugavpils, while the 20th Corps is deployed near the border with Vilnius, on the Belarusian side. Another enemy echelon assembles near Minsk.
Chronology of the conflict:
• Day 1 of the war: Russian special operations forces attack the Estonian islands (Saaremaa and Hiiumaa). Main Russian forces push in from the east and reach Daugavpils. The Lithuanian military, together with the German brigade, responds with massive artillery fire and counterattacks by mechanized units. Simultaneously, the Belarusian military carries out long-range strikes and launches an offensive toward Vilnius. Lithuania also comes under fire from the Kaliningrad region, which is met with a response from M270 MLRS and HIMARS systems.
• Day 2 of the war: Lithuanian HIMARS systems completely destroy Russia’s 15th Brigade, while *Apache* attack helicopters crush the enemy’s 62nd Tank Brigade. Belarusian forces attacking Vilnius are suffering massive losses. Helicopters are also successfully striking the 7th Belarusian Tank Brigade. From the direction of Kaliningrad, Russian units are attempting to exert pressure toward Tauragė and the Suwałki Gap.
• Day 3 of the war: Russia’s 2nd Army is fully committed to the fighting in Daugavpils, yet NATO forces hold their positions on the city’s outskirts. Coordinated strikes by HIMARS and Apache helicopters destroy the enemy’s 7th Tank Brigade and one-third of the 90th Tank Division, which had attempted to advance north of Vilnius. Attempts by Russia’s 11th Army to break out from Kaliningrad fail, resulting in heavy losses.
• Day 4 of the war: Russia’s 30th Brigade, attacking from the north, is neutralized by Lithuanian Apache helicopters. Near Vilnius, the remaining enemy force has been reduced to less than 50% of its original strength. Joint Lithuanian-German forces successfully push Russian troops back across the border from Kaliningrad.
• Day 5 of the war: Utilizing Apache helicopters and HIMARS systems, units of the Lithuanian Armed Forces block any further enemy penetration in the north. A German tank battalion reinforces the defense of Vilnius, while coordinated strikes by Apache helicopters and HIMARS systems suppress Russian attacks.
• Day 6 of the war: In the northern sector, Russian forces are suffering devastating losses—without reinforcements, any further advance is impossible. A similar situation is unfolding near Vilnius: the combined Russian and Belarusian forces have been completely halted or destroyed.
@Ministry of National Defense of Lithuania
According to this optimistic scenario, within just six days, Lithuanian defensive forces would fully neutralize four Russian army units committed to the offensive, forcing them to exhaust their offensive potential. The key to this success for the Lithuanian side lies in the effective integration of HIMARS systems, Apache helicopters, artillery, mechanized forces, tanks, and anti-tank units.
IV. Study Conclusion: The Cost of Defense and the Mechanics Behind the Simulation
Summarizing the results of the multi-day military simulation, the experts’ conclusion is unequivocal: Lithuania can successfully and effectively resist Russian aggression for the first 10 days—but only if it invests an additional 10 billion euros in defense over the next years.
Both scenarios were developed based on a careful assessment of Lithuania’s current military procurement and plans for the deployment of a German brigade.
The first scenario is based on a defense strategy utilizing the capabilities currently under development (including the presence of German troops).
The second scenario demonstrated the qualitative leap that would be ensured by the aforementioned urgent €10 billion injection into additional weaponry.
In this wargame organized in Washington, the defense of the Lithuanian side was led by General Ben Hodges—former Commander of NATO Land Forces in Europe—alongside retired U.S. Army colonels specializing in aviation and artillery. Representatives from the Office of the President of the Republic of Lithuania and the Defence Staff observed the entire process in real time. The Russian Federation’s offensive forces in the simulation were commanded by Dr. Philip Petersen, an expert from the New Generation Warfare Centre.
V. Then and Now
Since the presentation of the study in October 2024, Lithuania has made a massive qualitative and financial leap in its defense capabilities over the past two years. Many initiatives that were merely theoretical plans in 2024 are now reality, and defense resilience is being strengthened much faster than projected in the initial scenario of the article. A record sum of €4.79 billion—amounting to 5.38% of GDP—has been approved for the 2026 defense budget. The government is maintaining this momentum, with planned funding of approximately €4.8 billion (5% of GDP).
Germany`s 45th Armored Brigade
Currently, more than 1,700 troops are already serving permanently in Lithuania under the banner of Germany’s 45th Armored Brigade. In accordance with the latest bilateral agreements, the first phase of construction at the Rūdninkai military site was completed ahead of schedule; the core infrastructure is set to be fully operational by the end of 2027, at which point the brigade will reach its full operational capacity of 5,000 troops.
While the scenarios in the 2024 study focused primarily on heavy weaponry (HIMARS, tanks, and helicopters) without detailing the role of drones, by 2026, drone-related defense and technologies have become an absolute priority. Lithuania has allocated 145 million euros within its defense budget specifically for drone programs and counter-drone capabilities. Discussions have begun regarding the establishment of a state-owned drone industry holding company, while Lithuanian defense firms (such as RSI Europe) have secured tens of millions of euros in investment for local production.
As the value of contracts has reached unprecedented levels—with 8.7 billion euros' worth of contracts concluded between 2023 and 2025 alone—the Seimas has adopted amendments to procurement regulations on an expedited basis. Starting in 2027, new categories will be introduced: procurements to meet urgent operational needs and the acquisition of pilot batches. This will allow the military to obtain weaponry immediately, rather than having to wait years for the completion of bureaucratic procedures.
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